Why correlation does not imply causation, with confounding variable and spurious correlation examples drawn from social research.
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- What is a correlation?
- A statistical relationship where two variables move together.
- What is causation?
- One variable directly produces changes in another.
- Define a confounding variable.
- A third variable that influences both the independent and dependent variables.
- What is a spurious correlation?
- An apparent relationship between variables that is not due to a direct causal link.
- What is temporal precedence?
- The cause must occur before the effect.
- What is covariation in causal inference?
- The cause and effect must be related; changes in one must accompany changes in the other.
- What does 'no plausible alternative explanations' mean in causation?
- Other variables cannot provide a simpler or more parsimonious explanation for the relationship.
- Explain the 'third variable problem.'
- X and Y correlate because both are influenced by Z, not because X causes Y.
- What is reverse causality?
- The presumed direction of causation is backwards; Y may cause X instead of X causing Y.
- What is selection bias as a confound?
- The sample studied differs systematically from the population in ways related to both variables.
- What is regression to the mean?
- Extreme values tend to move closer to the average on a second measurement, creating spurious correlation.
- What is attrition bias?
- Participants systematically drop out, changing sample composition and confounding relationships.
- What are demand characteristics?
- Cues that communicate the study hypothesis, causing participants to alter behavior to confirm it.
- Why do ice cream sales and drowning deaths correlate?
- Both increase during summer months; warm weather is the confounding variable.
- What confound explains the education-income correlation in social research?
- Family socioeconomic status influences both education attainment and earning potential.
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