How to read and critique statistics reported in the news, including margin of error and sample size concerns.
30 cards · basic cards · AI-written, checked twice. Edit anything.
- What does margin of error tell you in a news poll?
- It shows the range around the reported percentage where the true value likely falls.
- How does sample size affect margin of error?
- Larger sample sizes produce smaller margins of error.
- What is a confidence level in polling?
- The probability that the true value falls within the margin of error range, usually 95 percent.
- Define correlation as reported in news.
- A statistical relationship between two variables; does not prove one causes the other.
- What is the key difference between correlation and causation?
- Correlation shows two things move together; causation means one directly causes the other.
- What is a confounding variable?
- A third variable that affects both variables being studied, creating a false appearance of correlation.
- Explain what statistically significant means.
- A result unlikely to occur by chance alone (usually p less than 0.05), but not necessarily important in practice.
- How do leading questions affect survey results?
- They bias respondents toward a particular answer by how they are worded.
- What is the base rate fallacy?
- Ignoring how common something is in the population when interpreting new statistical information.
- What does regression to the mean explain?
- Extreme measurements tend to be closer to average on a second measurement, not due to treatment effects.
- Define p-value in simple terms.
- The probability of seeing data this extreme or more extreme if the null hypothesis were true.
- What is survivorship bias in statistical reporting?
- Only seeing successful cases while overlooking failed ones, creating misleading conclusions.
- How can effect size differ from statistical significance?
- A result can be statistically significant but have such a small effect size it is not practically important.
- What is the Texas sharpshooter fallacy?
- Drawing a target around existing data points and then claiming a pattern.
- Explain Simpson's paradox.
- A trend present in separate groups can reverse when groups are combined.
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